This Week in Your Wallet: Stock Market Outlook Shaky, But Giving Holds Steady

This Week in Your Wallet:
Stock Market Outlook Shaky, But Giving Holds Steady

Da dum. Da dum. Da dum. Just when you thought it might be safe to look at your portfolio again, stock market analysts are weighing in with a less-than-sunny outlook for the fourth quarter and beginning of 2023. Despite prices for gas and food stabilizing and stocks that have risen in recent weeks, inflation and how consumers respond to it will likely be a deciding factor when it comes to the overall stock market performance of 2022. This week, Hannah Miao reports for The Wall Street Journal that analysts who seemed more optimistic during the warm months of summer are now changing their tune as temperatures turn frigid in late fall, now looking for lower-than-expected fourth-quarter earnings to impact stocks.

“Wall Street analysts have also sharply marked down current-quarter earnings estimates for S&P 500 companies, now projecting the first annualized quarterly earnings decline since 2020,” Miao writes. “Analysts at the end of June saw profit growing roughly 9% in the fourth quarter; they see a contraction of around 2% as of Friday, FactSet figures show.” Even with the threat of a recession in the future, it’s not all bad news. She says analysts expect brighter days ahead with predictions for “more than 5% annualized earnings growth for calendar year 2023.”

There are no guarantees, of course, when it comes to investing in the stock market. But my regular readers know that history shows that despite downturns, things have always eventually bounced back.

The State Of Giving…Not Just Today

As today is #GivingTuesday, it’s also a good time to note that just because your portfolio is likely down for the year doesn’t mean you don’t have some investments that are still up big overall. And, by making your charitable donations in appreciated stock you can give more for less (because not-for-profits don’t pay capital gains taxes like you do.)

And Americans are giving. This, according to the ‘Why America Gives’ report and survey from Classy, a not-for-profit that connects donors with causes that fit. Their research found that although nearly half of people are feeling pessimistic about the economy, 9 out of 10 are planning to give the same or more to the causes they care about — in fact, 4 in 10 say they’re cutting back on other spending to do so. And if you’re looking for more information on giving this year — including how to give back more, and the best charities for moms, we’ve got you covered.

Are You Shopping Like It’s 2019?

And while we’re talking about spending, did disingenuous doorbusters keep you from shopping like it was 2019 on Black Friday? Did you, like so many other shoppers, stay home and click your way through the sales? Shoppers spent $9 billion online on Black Friday and Cyber Monday sales hit a whopping $11.3 billion. Both are records. But as far as how the entire season will shake out? Harder to say. Predictions for how much and where Americans will spend our hard-earned money in the last quarter of the year are still all over the place.

New York Times reporters Jordyn Holman and Karen Weise talked to consumer experts and shoppers across the U.S. about what they were buying and why. Not surprisingly, experiences (and true bargains) topped the lists for many people who are delighted to attend concerts again without wearing a mask. So think about this as you make out your shopping list — a night out on Broadway (or your local theater) > Bose headphones.

Is It Ever OK To Charge Guests for Dinner at Your Place?

Finally, here’s a weird one: Friends invite you and your spouse to dinner at their home. You ask what you can bring. Wine and a dessert, you're told. You comply, taking not one, but two bottles and the requested end-of-meal dish. Afterward, (and with no previous arrangement) your friend asks you to pay for your portion of dinner, which was takeout, eaten at her home. This was the conundrum posed to The Washington Post’s Michelle Singletary recently, who responded to the disgruntled guest — who paid the friend, but fumed — on how to best handle the matter.

Her advice? “If you find yourself in a similar situation,” she writes, “respectfully push back. Don’t accept a financial obligation that you weren’t given an opportunity to turn down.” While splitting checks in a restaurant is one thing, an invitation makes you the guest. So the etiquette rule Singletary points to is “guests don’t pay.” She encouraged the reader to bring the matter up with the friend to clear the air. But it makes me wonder…is this commonplace? And wouldn’t the right move have been for the host, when asked “what can we bring,” to say: “Nothing. We’re planning on ordering in and hoping you’ll split the bill. That okay?” If it’s not, it gives you the chance to say, “Why don’t we just go out instead?” Please send your thoughts to me at jean@hermoney.com, we’ll publish them in the next issue.

Have a great week,

Jean

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